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Okay, let's break down this latest round of stimulus check rumors. The internet's buzzing about a potential $1,702 payment supposedly coming in 2025. Before you start planning that vacation, let's inject a dose of reality. Multiple sources are debunking these claims, and frankly, the numbers just don't add up. We're seeing the usual cycle: sensational headlines, social media hype, and a complete lack of official confirmation.
The core issue is that no government agency—not the IRS, not Congress—has announced any plans for a new federal stimulus program. Zero. Nada. Zilch. What we do have are echoes of past proposals and state-level initiatives, which are being conflated with something that simply isn't happening on a national scale. Remember the talk of "DOGE dividends" or tariff rebates? Those were just ideas floated, and never gained any real traction.
The Anatomy of a Rumor
It's worth dissecting how these rumors gain traction. You see a post claiming a stimulus check is coming, maybe with a convincing-looking graphic. It gets shared, amplified by algorithms, and suddenly it feels like a legitimate possibility. But look closer. Where's the official source? Is it a credible news outlet, or just a blog with a clickbait headline? The articles themselves point to social media speculation and "unverified websites." This is not exactly bulletproof evidence.
And this is the part of the report that I find genuinely puzzling. Why does the human brain seem hardwired to fall for these things? Is it wishful thinking? Is it a lack of critical thinking skills? Or is it simply the irresistible allure of free money?
The articles mention a few real things, like state-level "inflation relief checks" in places like New York, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey. These are legitimate programs, but they're targeted, one-time payments, not a universal stimulus. New Jersey's ANCHOR property tax relief, for instance, offers up to $1,750 for homeowners over 65, and smaller amounts for others. These are real, but they are not a $1,702 stimulus check for everyone.
Digging Into the Data
Let's talk about Trump's proposed tariff rebates. The idea was to use revenue from tariffs to send rebate checks to taxpayers. Missouri Senator Josh Hawley even proposed the "American Worker Rebate Act of 2025," suggesting payments of at least $600 per adult and child. Sounds promising, right? Except the bill went nowhere. It was referred to a Senate committee and then...silence. No updates, no progress, just another legislative dead end.
Representative Ro Khanna suggested a $2,000 stimulus check for families making under $100,000, funded by tariff revenue. Again, a proposal, not a plan. Khanna even told Newsweek he was "looking at how we can provide stimulus checks," which is a far cry from "stimulus checks are on the way." The key word here is "looking."
Now, consider the potential impact of tariffs. JPMorgan strategist David Kelly estimates that tariffs in effect as of September 2025 could cost U.S. households up to $2,400 on average. That's a significant hit, especially for lower-income households who spend a larger portion of their income on essentials. Kelly even suggests that the combination of tariffs and tax refunds could create economic conditions similar to the pandemic, with a surge in inflation. (Inflation is currently around 3%, but could rise to 3.5% by year's end).
There's a crucial distinction between a rebate and a stimulus check. A rebate is a partial refund of a purchase price, often tied to specific conditions. A stimulus check is a direct payment intended to stimulate the economy by putting money directly into consumers' hands. The confusion between these two concepts fuels the misinformation.
A Reality Check on Refunds
There is a potential surge in tax refunds coming in 2026, thanks to retroactive tax cuts in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). Kelly estimates the average refund could be roughly $3,743, up from $3,186. But here's the catch: the IRS isn't adjusting tax withholding rates in 2025. This means people will pay more upfront and get a bigger refund later. It's not free money; it's just a delayed return of your own funds. A tax-refund surge is coming, JPMorgan strategist says — and it’ll shift US economy like a new round of stimulus checks
And before you get too excited, remember that these tax cuts disproportionately benefit higher-income households. As Kelly notes, "the higher your marginal tax rate, the greater the value of the deduction." So, while some people might see a nice refund, it's not going to be evenly distributed.
The IRS is also warning about scams related to stimulus checks. Scammers use phishing emails, text messages, and fake websites to steal personal information. They might ask you to sign over your check or share your banking details. The IRS never asks for this information through unsolicited emails or phone calls. Remember, caution is your best defense.
So, What's the Real Story?
The truth is, there's no $1,702 stimulus check coming in 2025. It's a false rumor fueled by misinformation and wishful thinking. While some states offer targeted relief programs, there's no federal stimulus on the horizon. Focus on managing your finances responsibly, be wary of online scams, and don't bet your savings on something that simply isn't happening.