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Ozempic's Maker Isn't Exactly Booming
Novo Nordisk (NVO) just dropped its Q3 numbers, and the headline looks decent enough: a 15% jump in sales and a 10% bump in operating profit for the first nine months of 2025. Not bad, right? But dig a little deeper, past the press release gloss, and a slightly different picture emerges. You can find more details in the Novo Nordisk AS (NVO) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Sales Growth Amid Market Challenges - Yahoo Finance report.
The Fine Print: Guidance, Layoffs, and Market Share
First, let's talk guidance. Novo Nordisk is now projecting sales growth of 8-11% and operating profit growth of 4-7%. That's a narrowing of their previous forecast, which, in corporate speak, often means "we're not as optimistic as we were." Why the change of heart? They're citing lower growth expectations for GLP-1 treatments – the very drugs that have been driving their recent success. (GLP-1s are the class of drugs that includes Ozempic and Wegovy.)
Then there’s the planned reduction of approximately 9,000 positions globally. While they're framing it as a "transformation program" aimed at simplification and annual savings of DKK 8 billion by the end of 2026, let's be real: that's a lot of people out of work. Cost-cutting measures are almost always implemented to counter revenue dips.
Here's where it gets really interesting, though. Novo Nordisk admits to losing 9% market share in the combined obesity and diabetes market over the last 12 months. Nine percent! That's a significant chunk of the pie, especially when you consider how fast that pie is growing. They’re scrambling to compensate with new products like the Vigoy pill (a pill form of Wegovy) and increased commercial partnerships with Costco and Walmart.
The company's also pursuing strategic acquisitions, most notably Metsera. The stated reason is to "enhance its R&D portfolio". But is it? Or does this suggest a degree of concern about their internal pipeline? That's the question floating around online forums, and honestly, it's a valid one. (The acquisition cost was substantial (reported at $2.1 billion).)
Pricing Pressures and Competitive Threats
Novo Nordisk is facing intensifying competition in both the diabetes and obesity markets. That's no surprise. When a market explodes like this one, everyone wants a piece. But they're also dealing with pricing pressure in the US, particularly affecting their GLP-1 diabetes care products. And let's not forget the ongoing saga of compounded GLP-1 products in the US. (These are essentially knock-off versions of Ozempic and Wegovy, and Novo Nordisk is fighting to shut them down.)
Novo Nordisk now serves around 46 million people with diabetes and obesity, an increase of 3 million from the previous year. That’s a decent increase, about 7%. But the question is: are they acquiring new patients as quickly as the market is expanding? Or are competitors eating into their existing base? My analysis suggests the latter.
And this is the part of the report that I find genuinely puzzling. Novo Nordisk is focusing on core areas such as diabetes and obesity. Makes sense. But are they becoming too focused? Are they missing opportunities in adjacent markets? Are they so busy defending their turf that they're failing to innovate and expand into new areas? It feels like they are so caught up in the "Ozempic boom" that they are not thinking about the future.
The Golden Goose Might Be Losing Feathers
Novo Nordisk's numbers aren't terrible, not at all. But they're also not as rosy as the headlines might suggest. The market is shifting, competition is intensifying, and pricing pressures are mounting. The company is responding with layoffs, acquisitions, and new product launches. But is it enough? Only time will tell. The numbers suggest that the golden goose might be losing feathers.